The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said that India would receive “normal” monsoon, with a fair distribution of rainfall across the country. This will be the second consecutive year with average rainfall after back-to-back drought in 2014-15. However, only four years in line with failed monsoons will hurt incomes of farmers.
“India is in for a normal monsoon which will be good for agriculture and economy,” says, KJ Ramesh, director general of IMD, in the long-range forecast for 2017. Yet, Imd issues another updated forecast in June.
The forecast report goes harsh on government’s hopes of achieving a projected growth rate of more than 7.5%. Besides that, the monsoon rainfalls also help to bring the temperatures down across the country. On the other hand, predictions state that summer months this year will note record level temperatures.
Ramesh said that rainfall would be 96 percent average with a margin of 5 percent error. Monsoon rains in the country are considered as the lifeblood of India’s $2 trillion economy depending on the farms. These seasonal rains are critical for 263 million farmers for the crop season.
IMD has predicted 106 percent rainfall in the earlier year, which was 97 percent in actual. “We had very good rainfall and good agriculture output (in 2016),” DS Pai, a scientist at IMD. There are few factors which may leave a negative impact in the monsoon rains. There are few predictions of an abnormal warming of Pacific which shows the effect on South Asia including India.